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April 19, 2026
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Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth to soften to 4.3% in 2026
Money
Policy
Opportunity
Growth
Key Points
- Sub-Saharan Africa's growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 4.3%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from January projections, with median inflation expected to rise to 5.0%.
- The economic outlook is diverse, with growth accelerating for oil-exporting countries due to stronger revenues, while decreasing for low-income and fragile oil-importing states.
- Prices of key non-fuel commodities like gold and copper, though softened slightly, remain higher than 2025 averages, mitigating some economic shocks.
- The median current account deficit for the region is projected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2026, driven by improvements in both oil and non-oil resource-intensive countries.
- Median fiscal deficits are expected to worsen to 3.2% of GDP in 2026, with oil exporters seeing wider deficits and non-resource-intensive countries facing increased fiscal risks from unchanged administered fuel prices.
Why This Matters
As a non-oil resource-intensive country and an oil importer, Ghana is directly impacted by these projections. While higher non-fuel commodity prices (like gold) could positively affect its current account, the risks associated with administered fuel prices and the broader softening of growth for oil-importing low-income countries pose significant fiscal and economic challenges for the nation.
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- Dr. Boako, a Deputy Ranking Member on Parliament’s Finance Committee, questioned GoldBod's reported GH¢907 million profit, stating an outstanding overdraft would reflect a loss.
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- The NPP Minority Leader, Alexander Afenyo-Markin, reaffirmed the caucus's commitment to investigate a reported US$1.7 billion loss linked to the Bank of Ghana’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme and the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod).
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Why celebrate $2.62bn FDI while losing $1.7bn under the Domestic Gold Programme? IERPP asks
- The Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) welcomes Ghana's US$2.62 billion Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a sign of investor confidence.
- However, IERPP tempers this optimism with concern over an estimated GH¢22 billion (US$1.7 billion) loss from the Domestic Gold Purchase Program (DGPP).
- The DGPP loss is significant, equating to about 65 cents for every US$1 of FDI attracted, highlighting a major resource management issue.
- IERPP emphasizes that while FDI is crucial, it cannot substitute for prudent management and protection of existing public resources.
- The Institute calls for greater transparency, a clear breakdown of DGPP losses, and intense scrutiny from accountability institutions, Parliament, and civil society.